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AAI
Posted on Thursday June 28, 2007

Zogby/AAI Poll: Arab American Voters to Decide On 2008 Presidential Candidates by Stance on Iraq War

Poll Also Indicates Near Collapse of “Certain Republican” Voters

WASHINGTON – June 28, 2007 – Dr. James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, today presented the first-in-a-series of surveys on Arab American political opinion leading up to the 2008 presidential election.

The nationwide AAI poll, conducted by Zogby International, randomly surveyed 501 Arab American registered voters by phone. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points, though the margin is higher within subgroups. Click here for the full poll report and tables.

“While Arab American voters trend very closely to other Americans on domestic issues such as the economy, health care and education, the community’s personal connection to the Iraq war makes it the most important issue in determining their pick for president in 2008,” said Zogby.

“When coupled with results that indicate nearly half of Arab American voters’ decisions will depend upon the individual candidates rather than party, and with numbers that point to an erosion of ‘certain Republicans,’ it is clear that presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle must speak to issues and not party line in order to court Arab American voters,” he said.

Arab Americans’ Personal Connection to the Iraq War

When asked which three issues would be most important in determining their vote for president, the Iraq war registered as a top concern among 61% of Arab American voters. While no other issue registers a comparable level of concern, other issues that will determine the Arab American vote are: jobs and the economy (31%), immigration (13%), health care (13%), and education (8%).

The Iraq war uniquely impacts the Arab American community. Four in ten Arab Americans answered that they personally know someone from Iraq, 41% stating that they know an American service member, and 16% saying they know both an Iraqi and an American service member.

There is support for a phased withdrawal from Iraq from over half of Arab American voters (53%). This consensus is shared among all subgroups, including Republicans (47%). The position advocated by the president to remain in Iraq until victory is supported by less than one quarter (23%) of Arab American Republicans.

Near Collapse of the “Certain Republican” Arab American Voter

When asked if they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, an independent candidate, or if it would depend on the candidate for president, almost half of Arab American voters said it would depend on the candidate (46%).

While 62% of Democrats said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, there is a near collapse of certain Republican voters. Over half of Republican respondents (53%) said that they would vote for the Democrat (11%) or that it would depend on the candidate (42%). There is even indecision among older and Catholic voters—two subgroups which have in recent years favored Republican presidential candidates.

For over ten years, the Democratic Party has retained a base of approximately four in ten Arab American voters. Currently a quarter of Arab Americans still consider themselves Republicans, AAI’s polling indicates that support for the Republican Party has decreased by 10% over a ten-year period. After an increase in 2004 and 2006, Democrats settled back to 39%.

Almost eight in ten Arab Americans rate President George W. Bush’s job performance negatively. The president polls best among Republican voters (41% positive), although even this group gives him a net negative rating.

Presidential Candidates on the Peace Process

Almost two-thirds of Arab American voters said they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who promised to take an active role in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Support for this position exists across all demographic subgroups.

Over half of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for a presidential candidate who promised to support peace negotiations between Israel and Syria. Again, this support exists across all demographic groups.

Arab Americans’ Presidential Picks

Of the Republicans polled, Arab Americans named Giuliani and McCain as their top choices for president. Obama and Clinton were at the top choices for Arab American Democrats.